middleeast Iran's Top Nuclear Scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Assassinated

 Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the military leader of Iran's nuclear program, has been killed by Israel's foreign intelligence agency Mossad.  What is going to be known about the murder.

  

Iran Nuclear Scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Murder --- AFP PHOTO / HO / KHAMENEI.IR

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the military leader of Iran's nuclear program, has been killed by Israel's foreign intelligence agency Mossad.  What is going to be known about the murder

  1) Biden will not return America to JCPOA nuclear deal without significant complications

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  The Biden administration prioritizes the return of the United States to the 2015 GCPOA nuclear deal.

  The assassination of the godfather, a symbol of Iran's nuclear ambitions, sent an indirect message to the US president who arrived in Israel.  Fakhrizadeh was involved in nuclear weapons research, the Israelis know something that Biden knew.  The attack therefore sends a message to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Biden that regardless of Washington's policy, the pressure on Tehran for its covert action continues to grow. The Biden administration will not seek to ignore this pressure and pursue a separate US policy.  After all, extremist groups in Iran perceive Israeli intelligence activity as a symbolic extension of US foreign policy and resort to politics.  They are partly responsible for what happened in the United States.  In addition, the January assassination of Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qasim Solaimani raises the issue of defending Iran's bloodshed with the United States.  The attack raises further questions as to whether the first year of Biden's presidency provoked retaliation against US interests.  Iran does not consider Trump's attack or Biden's advantage.

  In 2011, when the IRGC tried to blow up a Washington, D.C., restaurant, the Obama administration did not respond as expected.  But by 2021, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for example, is likely to maintain or change a huge U.S. security detail after leaving office.

 2) It is believed that there were some US intelligence arguments for this operation.

  President Trump's retweeted report and attack indicate that the United States may be playing a supporting role.  This indicates that Trump has been informed of Israel's responsibility for this.  But can the United States support the attack?

  The US intelligence community's unique satellite capable and advanced technology could be used to alert Israelis to the Fakhrijadeh convoy attack as it shifted between its entry and exit points.  This would be particularly effective for the Israelis at the site of the attack, about 90 minutes on the ground outside Tehran.  The NSA has other means of communicating with Iranian security forces.

  3) The presence of Israeli secret spies on Iranian soil is a big reason.

  It is truly remarkable that Israel could successfully target Fakhrizadeh as it travels in a convoy with a trained IRGC security team.  To succeed here, the Israeli Mossad probably recruited operators into Iran from the "Kidney" Special Action Unit.  Regardless, Mossad can already rely on a network of safe havens, operations officers and highly trusted agents inside Iran.  As we know, previous Mossad's 'shoot-and-scoot' attacks indicate that Israeli intelligence is present on Iranian soil.  Just think of the obvious complexities involved in the use of explosives in a caravan inspection, the shooting death of Fakhrizadeh and then his removal without being caught.  I would suggest that the Israelis may have been through an agent inside Fakhrijada.

  4) The attack will provoke and retaliate against Iran

  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, one of the top leaders in the security establishment, and the elite of the hardliners view the attack differently, taking Solaimani seriously for the US operation.

  Not only that, these killings disrupt Iran's secret nuclear development.  Already geographically, Khamenei will see what has already happened as evidence that Iran is not intimidated by its enemies.  The IRGC, furious at the growing factional clashes, may have the idea.  Clearly, Khamenei's national security adviser has already warned that Iran "will take appropriate action against the killers of these innocent martyrs and will show remorse for what they have done."  For domestic political reasons, such as foreign protection, Iran will seek revenge against a significant Israeli and / or US target.  Israel's Shin Bet security service will certainly strengthen its already significant protection of Israeli ambassadors.

  5) This attack is not against the US or Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.

  If Iran advances toward uranium enrichment levels allowing it to build nuclear weapons, Israel will take military action against its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.  At this point, Israeli concerns about retaliation and global outrage will evaporate in fear of a second Holocaust.  But the complexity of the success of any such military operation makes it very impossible.  Israel believes it has gone beyond the option, instead of attacking the deployment of a U.S. Navy carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea / Persian Gulf this week.  The United States will deploy at least two and possibly three carriers in anticipation of any Israeli strike.